Economic growth to rebound in H2, now ideal time to selectively buy stocks: VinaCapital

Michael Kokalari, chief economist at VinaCapital, is confident economic growth will rebound in the second half of the year. (Photo courtesy of the company)- With the Government’s initiatives to address disappointing GDP growth in the first quarter and the fact that foreign companies’ orders are likely to increase in the second half of the year, the economy is expected to rebound then, Michael Kokalari , chief economist at investment fund VinaCapital , has said.In his latest report, he said GDP growth in Vietnam slowed precipitously in Q1 as consumers in the US and other developed markets cut purchases.Manufacturing accounted for a quarter of Vietnam’s GDP, and output contracted slightly in Q1 as against 9% growth a year earlier since most products made in the country were exported to the US and other developed countries.Vietnam’s international trade accounted for a higher percentage of its GDP than in any other nation and territory in modern history, excluding Hong Kong and Singapore, and so weaker demand in the rest of the world weighed fairly heavily on its economy.“Vietnam’s exports fell 12% year-on-year in Q1, driven by a 20% drop in exports to the US. Meanwhile, inventories at US retailers and other consumer-facing firms such as Nike and Lululemon are now contracting, which is why we expect FDI factories’ order books to start recovering later this year (inventories’ year-on-year growth looks likely to fall to 0% in H2, which should prompt a resumption of order growth for Vietnam).“Finally, domestic consumption continues to grow at a healthy pace and consumer confidence has remained remarkably resilient despite the sharp slowdown in GDP growth.“In addition, foreign tourist arrivals skyrocketed to over 60% of pre-COVID levels in Q1 despite the fact that Chinese tourists have not yet returned to the country en masse - which is another reason we expect Vietnam’s economic growth to recover in H2.”GDP growth slowed from 8% in 2022 to just 3.3% in Q1, prompting the Government to launch several initiatives to boost growth.The Ministry of Finance has finalised plans to cut the VAT rate from 10% to 8% in H2, equating to a stimulus of around 1.5 billion USD for Vietnam’s 450 billion USD economy.The Government will also allow companies and individuals to defer payment of various taxes by three to six months.Last month, the State Bank of Vietnam cut policy rates by 50-100bps, including a 50bp reduction in the refinancing rate to 5.5%, and a 50bp reduction in the maximum interest rates banks are allowed to pay savings deposits of up to 6 months to 5.5%.The Government also walked back some stricter conditions it introduced in late 2022 on the issuance of corporate bonds, Kokalari said.It had directed ministries to address various administrative bottlenecks impeding real estate and infrastructure development.“The Government has taken a series of initiatives to address the country’s slowing growth, the most concrete of which are tax cuts and interest rate cuts, but administrative measures intended to ease bottlenecks impeding real estate development and infrastructure projects could have an even bigger impact on growth in 2023 and beyond.“The fact that stock markets tend to start climbing in advance of economic rebounds, coupled with the fact that the VN-Index is trading at around a 10-year low valuation, leads us to believe that now could be an ideal time for investors to selectively purchase Vietnamese stocks.”Interest rates on short-term deposits in Vietnam had peaked in late-2022, and the policy rate cut last month would create additional downward pressure on those rates.“Consequently, there will be many bank deposits maturing in Q2 and Q3 and savers will essentially face a choice of rolling over their deposits at lower interest rates or plowing that money into the stock market (the vast majority of time deposits in Vietnam are 3-month and 6-month deposits).”/.

May 03, 2023 14:43 UTC


Vietnam ranks third in exporting mango to RoK

Illustrative image (Photo: VNA)- Vietnam is the third largest mango supplier for the Republic of Korea (RoK) in the world, but the imports from Vietnam only account for 5.8% of the Asian country’s total, the Import - Export Department under the Ministry of Industry and Trade has reported.According to the department, there is an ample room for Vietnamese firms to promote their export of the fruit to the RoK in the coming time. It urged Vietnamese exporters to fully tap advantages created by the Vietnam - Korea FTA (VKFTA) to boost exports to the country.Citing data from the Korea International Trade Association (KITA), the department said that the RoK’s mango import from Vietnam in the first three months of 2023 reached 8,000 tonnes worth 36. 4 million USD, down 18% in volume and 19% in value over the same period last year.According to the Vietnam Trade Office in the RoK, in 2023, a number of factors will continue to affect Vietnam's exports to the country because the Korean economy faces huge inflationary pressure, and rising interest rates.In order to promote the export of Vietnamese goods, especially agricultural and aquatic products and processed foods, to the RoK, Vietnamese businesses should pay special attention to meeting Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards (SPS) of the nation.Attention should be paid to strengthening exchanges and cooperation activities between domestic business associations and Korean counterparts, as well as with distribution corporations of the RoK such as Lotte Mart, E-Mart, Home Plus, and CJ Home Shoping, thus increasing sales opportunities in supermarkets and distribution channels in the RoK, the office said.It also recommended other measures, including supporting Vietnam ese enterprises to promote and sell their products at major Korean e-commerce sites such as Coupang and Gmarket, encouraging Vietnamese exporters to take part in prestigious trade fairs in the RoK, and organising field trips for RoK firms which are interested in setting up trade and investment cooperation with Vietnamese companies and business associations.In particular, Vietnam needs a stronger mechanism to attract Korean businesses to cooperate and invest in producing agricultural products for export to the RoK, it added./.

April 30, 2023 03:22 UTC


Russian scholars hail Vietnam's position, economic potential

Participants at the hybrid seminar (Photo: VNA)Russian scholars highly valued Vietnam's position, role , and economic potential during events held within the 8th Vietnam Day hosted by ASEAN Centre of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) on April 28.The event brought together crowds of lecturers and students from Russian universities.Addressing at a hybrid seminar organised within the event, Andrei Anatolyevich Baikov, Vice-Rector for Research and Global Engagement at MGIMO, stressed that it focused on challenges emerging in the world today in all fields so as to seek solutions to boost all-round cooperation between Russia and Vietnam.MGIMO will continue striving to contribute to further promoting relations between Russia and Vietnam and other ASEAN countries, he said.Boldyrev Alexander Viktorovich from Zarubezhneft petroleum JSC of Russia reviewed the oil and gas cooperation between the two countries in general and between Zarubezhneft and Vietnam in particular, saying that the firm is not only an oil and gas cooperation partner with Vietnam but also a contributor to strengthening political relations between the two nations.He pledged that Zarubezhneft will make more effort to further strengthen cooperation with the Vietnamese side.A joint discussion between representatives of MGIMO’s ASEAN Centre and the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam, along with four thematic debates, was arranged after the opening session, during which participants proposed many specific solutions to further strengthen the Russia-Vietnam relations.Rapporteurs mentioned difficulties and challenges in the current global political and economic context, while highly valuing Vietnam's international position, especialy Vietnam's role at the UN, the country’s effective foreign policies, and the potential of Vietnam's economy.A book by Vershinina Valeria Valerevna - an expert from ASEAN Centre, which provides analysis and assessment on the formation and development of Vietnam's foreign policy, the country's approach to the process of globalisation and integration, as well as its important contributions and role in regional organisations, was introduced within the event which also included a photo exhibition, an art performance programme imbued with Vietnam’s culture, and a trade fair introducing Vietnamese brand products./.

April 29, 2023 10:43 UTC


☕ Afternoon briefing on April 28

Read full text - National Assembly (NA) Chairman Vuong Dinh Hue, Speaker of the Senate and Vice President of Uruguay Beatriz Argimon, and Speaker of the House of Representatives of Uruguay Sebastian Andujar on April 27 (local time) signed a cooperation agreement between the two parliaments.The signing at the office of the Uruguay parliament was held within the framework of the official visit by Hue. Read full text -Chairman Hue the same day witnessed Speaker of the Senate of Uruguay Beatriz Argimon Cedeira and Speaker of the Chamber of Representatives of Uruguay Sebastian Andujar signing a resolution to establish the Uruguay-Vietnam Friendship Parliamentarians’ Group with eight members.The three leaders then attended a ceremony where the Uruguay-Vietnam Friendship Parliamentarians’ Group and the Vietnam-Uruguay Friendship Parliamentarians’ Group made their debut. Read full text - National Assembly Chairman Vuong Dinh Hue had a meeting with Mauricio Zunino, Acting Mayor of Montevideo, the capital city of Uruguay, on April 27 (local time).The Montevideo leader expressed his belief that NA Chairman Hue’s visit, the most important activity to celebrate the 30th anniversary of the Vietnam-Uruguay diplomatic relations, will contribute to further deepening bilateral relations. Read full text -Ho Chi Minh City recorded a month-on-month decline of 0.11% in its April consumer price index (CPI), the municipal Statistics Office has reported.Five of the 11 groups of main consumer goods and services witnessed price decreases, five others saw price increase, and one remained unchanged. Read full text /.

April 28, 2023 22:05 UTC


Vietnam values traditional friendship, cooperation with Belarus: PM

Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh (R) and visiting Belarusian Minister of Internal Affairs Ivan Vladimirovich Kubrakov in Hanoi on April 26 (Photo: VNA)Vietnam attaches great importance to further strengthening traditional friendship and cooperation with Belarus, said Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh while hosting visiting Belarusian Minister of Internal Affairs Ivan Vladimirovich Kubrakov in Hanoi on April 26.The PM appreciated Belarus’s support for Vietnam’s past struggle for independence and national reunification, and current national construction and protection. Belarus has created favourable conditions for Vietnamese expatriates to integrate into its society and offered Vietnam assistance with medical equipment and supplies to overcome COVID-19 and recover, Chinh said.He emphasised the contributions of their growing political, socioeconomic, cultural, and collaboration in defence and security to the sustainable and stable development of each nation. He suggested the sides effectively sustain their existing cooperation mechanisms and fields and study and develop new mechanisms and initiatives to jointly respond to new challenges.For his part, Minister Kubrakov informed his host on the outcomes of his recent talks with the Vietnamese Minister of Public Security To Lam, saying they reached important security-related agreements and action plans between the two ministries and the countries’ localities in terms of professional training, among others.In response, Chinh said he is pleased that the two sides have signed important documents, and exchanged and agreed on specific and practical measures to further promote the Vietnam-Belarus cooperation in preventing and combating crime, and maintaining social order and safety in each country.He went on to note that Vietnam welcomes Belarusian enterprises and commits to creating favourable conditions for them to expand their investment and long-term business in Vietnam, especially in sectors where Belarus has strengths such as fertilisers, machinery, and equipment. Vietnam also wants Belarus’s facilitation for more Vietnamese goods, particularly agro-fishery products, to enter its market.Kubrakov conveyed Belarusian Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko’s greetings and wishes to welcome PM Chinh in Belarus at an appropriate time. Meanwhile, Chinh said he has assigned competent agencies to prepare to welcome his Belarusian counterpart in an official visit to Vietnam at a time suitable for both sides./.

April 26, 2023 18:28 UTC


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