AdvertisingGiven that the official GDP growth for this period was 7 per cent, there is an average overstatement in the official GDP statistics of around 2.5 percentage points (ppt) a year. The second point relates to GDP revisions involved with the base-year change from 2004-5 to 2011-12. Perhaps mindful of Rawski’s fate (AS has written a laudatory book on China’s GDP growth), AS’s estimation is based on four major variables — export and import growth, real credit growth and electricity consumption. Real wage growth is an important component of GDP growth, and both Annual Survey of Industries and rural wage growth indicators suggest that the second 2012-16 period (spanning both UPA and NDA) contributed a higher portion to aggregate GDP growth. The trend in wages conflicts with AS’s derivation of over-estimation of GDP growth.

Source: Indian Express June 14, 2019 18:56 UTC