But as Mr. Biden’s margin endures well into its second month, it becomes harder to assume that it is just another fleeting shift in the polls. Perhaps the lead is not just different in size and length, but also in kind. With over three months to go, there’s still more than enough time for the race to change in the president’s favor. Hillary Clinton, for instance, briefly held fairly sizable leads, peaking at around seven percentage points in early August and mid-October 2016. Mr. Biden’s lead has lasted long enough to cast some doubt on that interpretation, but not necessarily so long to preclude it.

Source: New York Times July 20, 2020 16:16 UTC