Sudan borders countries also affected by displacement, armed conflict or risk of fragmentation, like the Central African Republic, Chad, Ethiopia, Libya and South Sudan. The consequences of the conflict in Sudan for neighboring countries, especially South Sudan and Chad, will become more apparent in the short to medium term. Less likely: Sudan fragments Under a second, slightly less likely – but entirely possible – scenario, Sudan would go through a process of territorial fragmentation. This could lead to another regional conflict. The Zaghawa tribe targeted by the RSF spans across the borders of Sudan and into Chad, and the tribal conflict could easily spread.

Source: The North Africa Journal June 17, 2024 12:02 UTC