Khamenei’s killing “could give rise to significant rivalries within the circles of power between the Revolutionary Guards and the civilian leadership,” she said, “But for now, they are all working together to keep the system in place”. “The alternative is a takeover by the Pasdaran,” the country’s ideological army, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Razoux said. “In reality, the rebalancing of power in favour of the Revolutionary Guards has already happened” in recent years, Nencini said. “But a transition towards a more militarised regime under their leadership is a possibility – a more conventional military regime, without the current Shiite religious framework. Razoux said the Iranian army “may hold one of the keys, and its positioning will be crucial – in relation to the population, the leadership and the Guards alike”.

Source: New Zealand Herald March 02, 2026 01:36 UTC