But the gathering economic storm is unlikely to bring President Vladimir Putin to the negotiation table anytime soon to end the war in Ukraine. “Russian soldiers today are paid more than any Russian soldier in the history of Russian soldiers,” RUSI’s Connolly said. Some of Russia’s more deprived areas have experienced an uplift during the war, in part because of huge pay checks going to Russian soldiers and their families. “They (Russian oil producers) are rerouting oil exports through smaller Russian companies… That is all costing a lot of money,” she said. If that is combined with stronger sanctions enforcement and increased pressure on India and China to stop buying Russian oil, the Kremlin could eventually change its calculus, she argued.

Source: CNN December 20, 2025 21:55 UTC