I’ve learned many times over the years to rely on the preponderance of the evidence, and not on any single indicator. Today’s low unemployment rate appears to have been more influenced by demographics than by economic growth. This last sub-index was at 51.0 last May;Non-Manufacturing (Services): This index also disappointed falling to 52.6 (Sept.) from 56.4 (consensus was 55.0). New Orders, Unfilled Orders, and Production all fell, but the Employment (+18.8 s +5.5) and Capex (+23.3 vs. +17.3) sub-indexes both rose. · In Chicago, the Fed’s National Activity Index fell to 47.1 (Sept.) vs. 50.4 (Aug.), so from slight expansion to contraction.

Source: Forbes October 06, 2019 22:07 UTC