With very little change to the body of the Kentucky Derby 2023 field, there has been very little change to my fair odds, but I made some adjustments after Wednesday's workouts at Churchill Downs. To put it mildly, Continuar did not look great Wednesday morning, and of course he'll take some money because they all do and because the Japanese angle gets bet. So, whereas before I had Continuar as sort of a wildcard and 100-1 to win the Derby, he is now 500-1 on my fair odds. And since I think he will be 50-1 in the gate, this is obviously a horse I do not want to use for a nickel given he is the biggest underlay in the race based on my fair odds. The reality is, he has hit all his marks: he did not miss any final preps and is working forwardly.

Source: The Nation April 26, 2023 22:38 UTC