ONS inflation data released today shows that UK food and drink prices in April 2023 were up +19.0% year-on-year, by the CPI method inflicting ongoing hardship on households. This broadly aligns to IGD’s forecast and may indicate that food price inflation has peaked – the rate in March was +19.1%, so the new data indicates a small decline. James Walton, chief economist at IGD, explains: “IGD’s latest forecasts, along with today’s new figures, suggest that inflation may have peaked. This is partly because the powerful forces which drove those price increases are running out of momentum, with prices for energy, fertiliser and some basic food commodities falling. “There are many variables in play, with weather and crop yields always hard to predict, but – barring major new shocks – IGD believes that food price inflation will gradually begin to slow as 2023 progresses.”Find out more from IGD’s next economic Viewpoint report, which will be released on 8 June, exploring what’s next for food inflation.

Source: The Times May 24, 2023 16:29 UTC