Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair said last month there’s a 40% chance that Brexit will be reversed; Citigroup Inc. analyst Jim Suva wrote that there’s a 40% chance Apple Inc. buys Netflix Inc.; and Nomura Holdings Inc. economist Lewis Alexander said there’s a 40% chance Nafta gets ripped up. Say you predict the Dow Jones Industrial Average has a 40% chance of hitting 30000 before year-end. He put a 40% chance on Apple buying Netflix, but also a 25% chance Apple buys Walt Disney Co., a 10% chance each it buys one of three videogame makers, and a 5% chance it buys Tesla Inc. That sums to 100%, implying it is mathematically certain Apple buys one of them. “You wouldn’t cross the street if there was a 30% chance you’d get hit.”Former British Prime Minister Tony Blair said last month there’s a 40% chance that Brexit will be reversed. Then in 2010 he projected a 40% chance of a “double-dip recession” in the U.S.

Source: Wall Street Journal February 26, 2018 16:27 UTC