THE crude oil futures markets are still largely pricing for an early resolution to the conflict in the Middle East that results in the full re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz. This is a Catch-22, the paradoxical no-win situation popularised by the 1961 novel of the same name by Joseph Heller. The current situation is very different, with the loss of the vast majority of the 20 million barrels per day of crude and refined products that usually transit the Strait of Hormuz. Such a move, and the likely resulting Iranian attacks against energy infrastructure across the Gulf hardly sound like the de-escalation necessary to keep a lid on crude oil futures. This means the global economy will likely have to deal with the loss of at least 10% of the supply of crude oil and refined products.

Source: The Star March 23, 2026 22:59 UTC