Its authors looked at Italy and decided their "worst case scenario" was actually "the most likely scenario". Despite recommending suppression "imminently" in the UK, the study admitted it will have "profound" social and economic effects - and no end date. Prof Neil Ferguson of Imperial College admitted UK chiefs changed tack when they realised the “worst case scenario” was actually “the most likely scenario”. “Initially when we came up with these sorts of of estimates, they were viewed as what’s called the reasonable worst case scenario. “But as information has been gathered in recent weeks, from particularly Italy and other countries, it’s become increasingly clear that actually this is not the reasonable worst case.

Source: Daily Mirror March 17, 2020 08:09 UTC