Each December, since 2000, the median forecast never called for a stock market decline over the course of the following calendar year. (That’s roughly in line with the long-term stock market average: Vanguard has found that from 1926 through 2019, the stock market fell in 27 percent of calendar years.) In 2018, for example, the market fell 6.9 percent, though the forecasters said it would rise 7.5 percent, a spread of 14.4 percentage points. In 2002, the forecast called for an increase of 12.5 percent, but stocks fell 23.3 percent, a spread of almost 36 percentage points. That may sound grim, yet I, too, remain essentially bullish about the stock market over the long run.

Source: New York Times December 18, 2020 13:52 UTC