gdp: Downside risks to growth, inflation to undershoot : Economic Survey - News Summed Up

gdp: Downside risks to growth, inflation to undershoot : Economic Survey


NEW DELHI: There are downside risks to the government's growth forecast of 6.75 to 7.5 per cent for the fiscal year to March 2018, the finance ministry said in mid-year economic survey on Friday.It further said that achieving upper end of 6.75 per cent to 7.5 per cent real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth predicted in February is difficult.This is the first time that a mid- term economic survey has been presented.The first volume of the Survey in February had forecast the said target, factoring in more buoyant exports, a post-demonetisation catch-up in consumption and a relaxation in monetary conditions consequent upon demonetisation.Since then all the new factors-- real exchange rate appreciation, farm loan waivers, increasing stress to balance sheet in power, telecom, agricultural stress and transitional challenges from implementing the GST -- impart a deflationary bias to activity, the Survey said.The survey, authored by Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian , also said inflation was expected to remain below the Reserve Bank of India 's (RBI) 4 per cent target through to the end of the fiscal year.Further, the survey stated that fiscal deficit is expected to decline to 3.2 per cent of GDP in FY 2018 compared with 3.5 per cent in FY 2017.In a reference to key interest rates, the survey stated that there is considerable scope for monetary policy easing. (With inputs from Agencies)


Source: Times of India August 11, 2017 07:25 UTC



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