A few days before that, I’d noted that undecideds appeared to be breaking to Trump, boosting him in the polls. When Trump won in 2016 — something that Silver et. People looking to overstate Trump’s surprising victory quickly conflated Silver’s model with other models that had, for example, a 98 percent chance of Clinton winning. In fact, most polling was national polling that predicted exactly what happened: Clinton won a fewer percentage points more of the vote than Trump. But that poll essentially had Trump winning the popular vote by a wide margin, which he didn’t.

Source: Washington Post September 27, 2017 20:25 UTC