But a study published on Tuesday in The Lancet, the medical journal, has challenged that forecast, with major economic and political implications. The study asserted that the global population could peak at 9.7 billion by 2064 — nearly four decades earlier — and decline to 8.8 billion by 2100. The study also projected significant declines in the working-age populations of China and India, the two most populous countries, portending a weakening in their global economic power. The study’s projections, if borne out, also carry significant consequences for the United States, whose economy is expected to trail China’s in size by 2035. As China’s working-age population declines in the second half of the century, the study said, the United States could reclaim the top spot economically by 2098 — if immigration continues to replenish the American work force.

Source: International New York Times July 14, 2020 23:37 UTC