The generic ballot asks respondents some form of the following question: "If the elections for Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic or Republican Party?" This means Republicans are actually doing better on the generic ballot now than they were heading into the 2020 election. The reason is that when there is a Democrat in the White House, Republicans have traditionally had a turnout advantage. If trends hold, the most likely national House result in 2022 given the current generic ballot is Republicans winning by between 4 and 5 points. The current generic ballot suggests we're likely to see a repeat of this trend.

Source: CNN April 03, 2021 12:11 UTC