It's been a decade since the Great Recession, so the obvious question that is now on many people's minds is "when is the next recession and bear market"? In this piece, I will discuss the U.S. Treasury yield spread and yield curve and how it is useful for estimating the approximate time frame when the next recession and bear market may occur. Inverted yield curves warn investors that the next recession and bear market is likely to occur in the next one-to-two years. When the spread drops below 0%, it means that the Treasury yield curve is inverted, which warns that a recession and bear market is likely not far off. In the shortest cycles – the ones culminating in the 1973-1975 recession and 1981-1982 recession – only 10 months elapsed from the time that the yield curve first inverted until the recession hit.

Source: Forbes September 14, 2018 16:49 UTC