Reuters/Ipsos poll last month showed Biden adding just two points to his margin if Trump is convicted of a crime, but six points if Trump is incarcerated as a result. Earlier polling has shown the margins shifting toward Biden by between 5 and 14 points if Trump were convicted in one of his cases. These polls would suggest that at least some Trump supporters who say they would merely “reconsider” would be inclined to desert Trump, too, if forced to choose. Would half of Americans really vote for a convicted felon when it came down to it? Those Trump supporters now have a 2024 nominee who is convicted of an illegal scheme to win the presidency in the first place.

Source: Washington Post May 31, 2024 04:18 UTC