But I’ve come to realize that I was wrong about a major aspect of probabilities. And when the unlikely happens, people scream: The probabilities were wrong! Usually, they were not wrong. The screamers were wrong. For an individual event, people can’t resist saying that a probability was “right” if it was above 50 percent and “wrong” if it was below 50 percent.

Source: New York Times December 25, 2017 01:18 UTC