“IMD forecasts indicate a very severe cyclone in the Arabian Sea, driving the moisture away, instead of the expected monsoon onset. An exceptionally warm Arabian Sea, a weak monsoon onset, and favourable MJO conditions are favouring this cyclone…SSTs are 31-32°C, 2-4°C above climatological mean. This is clearly the climate change link, as Arabian Sea warming is favouring more intense cyclones. There is a 30-year cycle for frequency of Arabian Sea cyclones which is well known. Rajeevan referred to a 30 year cycle when cyclones are more severe over Arabian Sea followed by not so severe ones.

Source: Hindustan Times June 13, 2023 10:40 UTC