WTO dramatically cuts 2016 global trade growth forecastThe World Trade Organization on Tuesday revised down its 2016 global trade forecast by more than a percentage point, warning growth had hit its slowest pace since the global financial crisis. (WTO / mb.com.ph) Chart 1: Ratio of world merchandise trade volume growth to world real GDP growth, 1981-2016(WTO / mb.com.ph)WTO now estimates that global trade will expand by just 1.7 percent in 2016, compared to its April projection of 2.8 percent, and compared to a projection a year ago that trade would swell by 3.9 percent this year. It said the downgrade followed a sharper-than-expected decline in merchandise trade volumes in the first quarter, and a smaller-than-expected rebound in the second quarter. (WTO / mb.com.ph) Chart 4: Container shipping throughput index, January 2007 – July 2016(WTO / mb.com.ph)“The dramatic slowing of trade growth is serious and should serve as a wake-up call,” WTO director general Robert Azevedo warned in the statement. (WTO / mb.com.ph) Chart 5: Effective exchange rates and crude oil prices, Jan. 2012 – Jul.

Source: Manila Bulletin September 27, 2016 08:26 UTC