The latest Wall Street Journal (gated) survey of economists lowered the probability of a recession within the next year to 39%from 48% in the October surveyReasoning cited included:interest rates are trending lowergas prices are down from last yearincomes are growing faster than inflationThe economists on average expect the economy to grow just 1% in 2024about half its normal long-run ratea significant slowing from an estimated 2.6% in 2023Employers are expected to keep adding jobs in 2024, but at a much slower pace than in recent yearspayroll gains to average 64,000 a month this year, less than a third of the 225,000 average in 2023expect the unemployment rate will climb to 4.3% by the end of the yearThe Journal adds that a 0.6 percentage point increase in the jobless rate would imply a net one million more Americans unemployed by the end of the year and that much of an increase in unemployment has almost always occurred during recessions, according to one widely followed rule. Economists see inflation (the personal-consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy) falling to 2.3% at the end of 2024 from 3.2% this past November. The Fed ... roughly a third of the economists expect the first rate cut at the April 30-May 1 meeting, and just over a third at the June 11-12 gathering.

Source: Wall Street Journal January 15, 2024 04:27 UTC