Once the implicit “mandate of heaven”—the moral consent of the governed—is forfeited, the social contract dissolves and failure accelerates. LEGITIMACY, THE SOCIAL CONTRACT, AND INSTITUTIONAL DECAYState stability rests on a self-reinforcing triangle: legitimacy, the social contract, and institutional strength. Effective institutions deliver public goods; those goods sustain the social contract; and the fulfillment of the contract generates legitimacy. This creates a vicious cycle: institutions fail because they lack legitimacy, and legitimacy erodes because institutions no longer function. Resilience requires a renegotiated social contract grounded in:•⁠ ⁠Independent Institutions – Courts and civil services must serve the law, not rulers.

Source: The Guardian January 10, 2026 11:12 UTC