After 14 years of Conservative rule, Keir Starmer’s Labour has been consistently ahead in the polls since the start of 2022. The Scottish National party (SNP) is not included in the data the Guardian is using in the chart above. In Great Britain-wide polls, the SNP vote sits between 2% and 4% of national vote share. But its geographical concentration in Scotland means it will win many more seats than other small parties with a similar national vote share, such as the Greens. Source: Electoral Calculus .

Source: The Guardian May 29, 2024 16:34 UTC