As president, Donald Trump tends to capitulate under sustained pressure, but Iran tests the limits of the theory. Deutsche Bank’s gauge is essentially a Taco (Trump always chickens out) index, as is BCA Research’s Trump Pain Point index. Taco is a useful mental model for traders, a reminder that dips can be buying opportunities because Trump tends to capitulate under sustained pressure, but Iran tests the limits of the theory. While the indices signal pressure on Trump, any resolution depends on co-operation from both sides. As various analysts have noted, it takes two to Taco on Iran.

Source: The Irish Times March 29, 2026 09:56 UTC