Prediction markets are Washington’s latest bogeyman, but President Donald Trump isn’t spooked. After the July 2024 attempt to assassinate Trump, traders immediately integrated the news into the Republican’s odds, increasing his chances. Polling data, by contrast, “did not react similarly” and “consistently hovered around a 45% chance.”The election wasn’t an aberration, either. But the urge to regulate — typified by Arizona’s attorney general filing criminal charges against prediction market Kalshi last week — misses the societal benefits that come from speculation. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission recently filed an amicus brief in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit affirming the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction over prediction markets and extolling their value.

Source: Washington Post March 25, 2026 17:22 UTC