The size of that lead can vary significantly from poll to poll - she was seven percentage points ahead according to an NBC poll, then only one percentage point ahead, according to Quinnipiac University – but they still suggest Clinton is winning the majority of support. Numbers from LA Times and USC published on Wednesday tell a very different story, though, because they suggest Trump is four percentage points ahead of Clinton. But the LA Times and USC poll also adjusts for something else – it takes into account how people say they voted in 2012. and (3) Clinton, Trump or someone else will win? That means they don’t simply lump voters into groups like “voting for Trump”, “voting for Clinton”, “voting for Stein” and “undecided”.

Source: The Guardian September 28, 2016 15:01 UTC