Donald Trump has now taken a 52% to 48% lead in the 538 forecast, though Kamala Harris is still favored to win the popular vote. G. Elliot Morris: “You might be tempted to make a big deal about our forecast ‘flipping’ to Trump, but it’s important to remember that a 52-in-100 chance for Trump is not all that different from a 58-in-100 chance for Harris — both are little better than a coin flip for the leading candidate. While Trump has undeniably gained some ground over the past couple weeks, a few good polls for Harris could easily put her back in the ‘lead’ tomorrow. Our overall characterization of the race — that it’s a toss-up — remains unchanged.”Nate Silver’s forecast also shows Trump with a 52% chance at winning.

Source: ABC News October 19, 2024 05:58 UTC