Unlike in 2012, self-identified Republicans now outnumber Democrats in Times/Siena polls of Wisconsin, Michigan and even Pennsylvania, where the Democratic registration advantage remains significant but has dwindled in recent months. Instead, Mr. Biden leads with an overwhelming advantage among independent voters, who back him by 20 percentage points in both states. Mr. Peters leads by just one percentage point, 43 percent to 42 percent, among likely voters, a significant narrowing of the race since a Times/Siena survey in June that found Mr. Peters leading, 41-31. It remains to be seen whether Mr. James, who is Black, will ultimately make significant inroads among these voters. Yet here it is the incumbent Democrat faring worse than Mr. Biden, and a Republican win in Michigan would force Democrats to pick up a win in a state that Mr. Trump won comfortably in 2016, like Iowa or Montana, to win Senate control.

Source: New York Times October 12, 2020 16:52 UTC