Getty ImagesKey FactsThe blockchain-based election betting site Polymarket priced in a 60% chance of a Trump victory, breaking the 60% threshold for the first time since late July, days after President Joe Biden bowed out of the race. Election Betting Odds, which aggregates implied betting odds across the five major markets, gives Trump a 57% chance at victory, tilting in Trump’s favor by the widest margin since July 29, up from about 48% at the end of September. ContraRoughly 60% betting odds does not equate to a 60% to 40% lead for Trump in polls, but rather indicates election bettors expect Trump to win about 60 out of 100 election simulations (think how underdog sports teams often win games despite sportsbook lines). National polls lean in Harris’ favor, with Real Clear Polling’s latest weighted data giving Harris a 49.2% to 47.7% advantage. TangentThe nascent election betting market landscape is not the only financial instrument moving toward a Trump victory.

Source: Forbes October 18, 2024 06:34 UTC