The available data point persuasively to one answer: Trump’s tariffs. Despite Trump’s promise to reinvigorate manufacturing, the U.S. economy was left with 58,000 fewer jobs in November than it had in January 2025. (See the box on why Trump’s tariffs haven’t done more to increase the overall inflation rate.) In addition, Trump’s tariffs come loaded with exemptions and loopholes. Economist Paul Krugman estimates that in practice the de facto effective rate of Trump’s tariffs is closer to 10%.

Source: Wall Street Journal January 23, 2026 15:15 UTC