The delineation between news and noise, combined with an awareness that risks bring opportunities, is why our team spends time debating issues that might surprise markets. As we have said in the past, the greatest risks and opportunities in markets arise from consensus views, which ultimately prove incorrect and spur repricing - 2023 was certainly proof of that. Yield curves for most developed markets point to rate cuts in 2024, but with policy remaining above current estimates of neutral. Earnings growth expectations have been significantly upgraded for 2024 and beyond, creating a higher bar for upside surprises. New Zealand’s reliance on the rest of the world is growing and may culminate in a ratings downgrade in 2024.

Source: Stuff December 28, 2023 20:45 UTC