The third major player in this election is the economy, which has shaped both campaigns’ narratives and kept the race on a razor’s edge. Trump has said he would push through an array of tax cuts and tariffs, while painting a darker picture of the economy. The interplay between robust growth and high prices might be a major reason why polls show the election as a tossup. The first is the per capita growth rate of real, or inflation-adjusted, gross domestic product in the three quarters before the election. The more growth the economy has delivered over the election year, the better it is for the incumbent party’s candidate.

Source: Wall Street Journal November 05, 2024 10:15 UTC