So which of the leading Democratic candidates has demographic strengths that would be an advantage in the electoral college? There’s uncertainty in the underlying polls, which carries over into the predictions; we don’t know exactly what would happen if Joe Biden won 48.5 percent of the national popular vote, for example. Every Democratic candidate would need to win more than 50 percent of the popular vote to win the electoral college. Among the top Democratic candidates, Warren wins the Southwest — and the presidency — with the lowest average share of the national popular vote. In contrast, Warren’s support among Hispanics and Buttigieg’s among whites set both up for an easier electoral college victory.

Source: Washington Post October 23, 2019 11:37 UTC