In its current phase, the Israeli-US war against Iran and its proxies has become a proving ground for two competing concepts of military escalation, each of which threatens to become a trap. The strategic level defines whether the political and national security aims of the war are being achieved and at what cost. “The problem is that when that doesn’t lead to strategic success … you get to second stage of the trap. If that were to happen, whether it was directed by Iran or not, who knows how the president then reacts? The war in Vietnam took years to evolve into a middle-sized war … The situation in Iran might follow a similar trajectory.”

Source: The Guardian March 14, 2026 14:37 UTC