The risks are of higher inflation and slower growth in 2026 but everything depends on how the war evolves. A lengthy blockage of supplies through this route would have a serious economic impact and drive prices significantly higher. There is also the wider economic impact. In turn, higher energy prices for consumers and businesses would be a direct economic cost to energy importers such as Ireland, and disrupted trade flows could also push up prices. The economic outlook for 2026 is now on a knife-edge, reliant on an unpredictable war in the Middle East and whether it fizzles out quickly or drags on.

Source: The Irish Times March 03, 2026 05:06 UTC