Predicting the economy by looking at economic statistics has often been compared to steering a car using the rear-view mirror. So what does a quick glance at the speedometer – today’s GDP figures – tell us? As restrictions eased, there was some recovery in June, with growth of about 9%. But perhaps the worst possible interpretation of these figures comes from those who argue that they demonstrate a trade-off between lives and the economy. As I, and most other economists from across the political spectrum, argued at the very beginning of the lockdown, there is no short-term trade-off between lives and economic growth here.

Source: The Guardian August 12, 2020 15:22 UTC