Unfortunately for Sunak, the chance of this saving grace occurring relies heavily on the fact that for decades, pollsters have tracked uniform national swing (UNS) based on the assumption that most constituencies have broadly similar numbers of floating voters. This has meant that the swing in any particular seat is unaffected by whether it was safe Labour, safe Tory or marginal. For Portsmouth North, YouGov projects a 20 per cent swing to Labour. It’s just possible that UNS will revive and Tory candidates will avoid the MRP penalty that many of them now face. Seat by seat, the more votes Labour won in 2010, the more it shed in 2015.

Source: The Times June 08, 2024 23:54 UTC