For over a decade, Egypt treated the dam as a technical dispute, seeking international mediation and legal frameworks. The most significant development of 2026 is Egypt’s strategic linking of the Nile to the Red Sea. The deployment of Egyptian forces under the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia is a clear signal that the "Red Line" has moved. This is a classic realist maneuver: if Ethiopia controls Egypt’s water, Egypt will control Ethiopia’s access to the world. The Trump administration’s mediation efforts must move beyond the "predictable water releases" framework and address the underlying security fears of the Egyptian establishment.

Source: Ethiopian News February 18, 2026 11:53 UTC