This policy note argues that the escalation between the United States and Iran has exposed the limits of traditional Gulf neutrality. In this context, Gulf states must balance between deterrence and diplomatic efforts to protect their sovereignty and infrastructure and avoid being drawn into a wider confrontation. Targeting Gulf states, despite their declared neutrality, serves two purposes. Open War or Calculated DeterrenceThis situation presents the Gulf states with two highly contentious alternatives. Redefining Regional Security and the “New Neutrality”The core question today is how regional actors can construct a regional security equation that prevents neutrality from becoming a vulnerability.

Source: The Guardian March 12, 2026 13:30 UTC