The key question for the oil markets, though, is does this influx of Western firms signal a genuinely more stable political backdrop in Libya that will allow it to finally make good on its oil potential? There is certainly plenty of this to work with, as Libya remains the holder of Africa’s largest proved crude oil reserves, of 48 billion barrels. That said, NOC plans were in place before 2011 to roll out enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques to increase crude oil production at maturing oil fields and the NOC’s predictions of being able to increase capacity by around 775,000 bpd through EOR at existing oil fields looked well-founded. Around 80% of all of Libya’s currently discovered recoverable reserves are located in the Sirte basin, which also accounts for most of the country’s oil production capacity, according to the Energy Information Administration. The SPO’s potential success also depends in part on the outcome of the current licensing round, as it needs around US$3-4 billion to reach the initial 2026/27 1.6 million bpd production target.

Source: Libya Today January 05, 2026 23:08 UTC