The blockade has seen the National Oil Corporation (NOC) declare force majeure, and warn that production could fall to just 72Mbbls/d in the coming days once storage tanks are full. A prolonged disruption from Libya would be enough to swing the global oil market from surplus to deficit in 1Q20. Looking at the Commitment of Traders report, there was little change in speculative positioning in ICE Brent over the last reporting week. Meanwhile looking at Henry Hub natural gas, speculators continued to increase their net short over the last reporting period, selling 19,528 lots, leaving them with a net short of 269,944 lots - a record net short. Finally looking at the week ahead, and in terms of data releases, it will be fairly quiet for the oil market.

Source: Libya Today January 20, 2020 03:22 UTC