Pennsylvania -- an open-seat race in a state that President Joe Biden carried in 2020 -- remains the most likely to flip. The top 10 Senate seats most likely to flip are based on CNN's reporting and fundraising data, as well as historical data about how states and candidates have performed. The group is often a powerful player in Democratic primaries, including in another Democratic Senate primary here in 2016. Trump did it on stage at the state GOP convention just minutes after his daughter-in-law, Lara Trump, said she was passing on the race. But state Sen. Jeff Jackson and former state Sen. Erica Smith are still running too.

Source: CNN July 05, 2021 10:07 UTC