If China were to conquer Taiwan, it would do little to facilitate further Chinese military expansion. Moreover, the added strength of other allies and partners, including Australia, India, South Korea, and Vietnam, suggests that Chinese military hegemony in the Asia-Pacific will remain a pipedream even in the event of a Chinese conquest of Taiwan. Over the last 15 years, significant tensions have surfaced in Japan-China relations, but these have never concerned Chinese military threats against Japan’s home islands. Still, Chinese conquest of Taiwan isn’t a foregone conclusion even when it is outside the American defense perimeter. Stepping away from Taiwan’s defenseA U.S. that steps away fully from any Taiwan defense commitment will be significantly better off.

Source: New York Times December 24, 2025 07:44 UTC