This summer is likely to be hot in the U.S., and not just because it is typically the season of swelter. Ocean temperatures, soil moisture, forecast models and long-term trends are all contributing factors in predicting a warmer-than-normal summer this year. The coasts of New England could be hot because the Atlantic Ocean already feels like summer, while the center of scorching temperatures will once again almost certainly be the Southwest. I can almost hear the groan from those of you who are skeptical that meteorologists can deliver a good forecast seven days out, let alone for an entire summer. But before you send me, a meteorologist, accusatory emails, allow me to explain how predictions for an entire season work.

Source: New York Times May 30, 2023 15:43 UTC