I’ll make a few very specific forecasts further down, but first, I want to say what I really think about next year. But the immediate economic cycle seems to be turning in our direction for the first time in years. Events have a way of ruining the forecasts and predictions of the smartest and most meticulous economists. My unscientific extrapolation of this holds that the further out an economist forecasts, the less reliable the forecasts become. But numerous academic studies (and common sense) point to long-term economic forecasts not being the paper they are written on ... or the energy required to generate the pixels (or however that analogy should work these days).

Source: New Zealand Herald December 20, 2025 20:36 UTC