Advertisement Continue reading the main storyThere are, however, reasons to question whether Mr. Trump will outperform the polls. In Iowa, Ann Selzer, the pollster for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics, lost her unblemished record when she showed Mr. Trump with a small lead. Mr. Trump has aroused racial feelings more than any national candidate since George Wallace 40 years ago, but a lot has changed. It’s doubtful Mr. Trump has that capacity, so he needs a silent vote to offset his high negatives. Even if this hidden strength adds a few points for Mr. Trump, the Democrats have a powerful offset.

Source: New York Times September 11, 2016 14:26 UTC