The higher oil prices in 2026 and 2027 lead to higher US crude output than last month’s STEO in 2027 by about 500 kb/d. The higher natural gas output compared to previous STEO reports is mostly due to higher associated gas output that is assumed to come from the Permian Basin. Note that the chart above shows marketed natural gas, before the NGL is removed, where the previous chart gives us dry natural gas production after the NGL has been removed from the wet gas stream. Marketed natural gas output in 2027 is forecast at an average annual rate of 123.9 BCF/d, about 11.6 BCF/d more than dry natural gas average output in 2027. Average annual Permian tight oil output increases by about 6 kb/d from 2025 to 2027 for this scenario.

Source: New York Times March 25, 2026 08:17 UTC