Gerry Bell, the lead hurricane season forecaster with the climate prediction centre of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, delivered the forecast as part of the annual announcement of the agency’s hurricane season outlook. In the probabilistic language the agency uses to describe the season ahead, there is a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and just a 10% chance of a below-normal season. In an average hurricane season there are 12 named storms (those with winds of 39 mph or higher) and three major hurricanes (when winds reach 111 mph or more). The Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1 and runs through Nov. 30, though the emergence of Tropical Storm Arthur this month made this the sixth year in a row in which a named storm has slipped in before the official beginning of the season. For all of the attention that NOAA’s annual announcement receives, though, it doesn’t offer a definitive verdict on the hurricane season, said Andrew Dessler, an expert in climate change at Texas A&M University.
Source: bd News24 May 22, 2020 03:56 UTC